ESPN prognosticator projects a significant regression from Jordan Love and the Packers in 2024

ESPN released an updated version of Mike Clay's 2024 NFL Projection Guide this week, and Green Bay Packers fans might not like it whatsoever. The projections don't seem to be optimistic about the Packers' offense this season, which would include a statistical regression from quarterback Jordan Love. The defense doesn’t have many reasons to be happy with the projections either.

The Love Story

In his first year as a full-time starter in 2023, Jordan Love completed 64.2% of his passes for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions — a 96.1 passer rating.

According to Mike Clay's projections, Love is expected to have 510 attempts — less than the 579 attempts he had in 2023 —, with 3,668 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions — a 91.5 passer rating.

That's a curious conclusion. Clay projects Love to play 15 games, with backup Sean Clifford starting two games. That's ok, injuries happen and it's fair to project some missed games for everyone in the league.

The missed games would make normal a regression in volume stats, like total attempts and passing yards. However, Clay is projecting that Love will have two more interceptions than what he did in 2023. It's not like Love had turnover luck in 2023, he had a really solid 2.6% turnover-worthy rate according to PFF.

His passer rating would also go down five points. According to the ESPN's analyst, Love would be the 12th most productive fantasy football quarterback.

No WR1, again

This take is much more reasonable, with the Packers not expected to have a clear wide receiver one once again. By Clay's projections, Christian Watson would lead the team with 837 yards and eight touchdowns, followed by Jayden Reed (760 yards, five touchdowns), Romeo Doubs (682 yards, five touchdowns), and Dontayvion Wicks (427 yards, three touchdowns). And while those are reasonable outcomes, Clay doesn't expect development for any of these players — Reed and Wicks are actually projected to have fewer yards than they had as rookies, and Doubs would have a slight increase compared to his second year. The main difference is that Clay expects Watso to be healthier, and therefore more productive.

Among tight ends, Mike Clay also expects similar numbers to what Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave had as rookies. Kraft is projected to have 372 yards and three touchdowns, while Musgrave is expected to have 338 yards and two TDs.

Running game

That's probably the biggest difference compared to the last couple of years. Last season, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 320 rushing attempts. Meanwhile, Clay projects Josh Jacobs alone to have 247 attempts — plus 74 for MarShawn Lloyd and 49 for AJ Dillon.

Jacobs would have 972 rushing yards (3.9 per carry), and adding 37 catches for 284 receiving yards, he would be the only Packers offensive weapon surpassing 1,000 scrimmage yards — but still the 15th best running back by fantasy PPR results.

Clay projects 324 rushing yards and two TDs for Lloyd and 194 yards and a score for Dillon.

Defensive regression

Ok, Mike Clay seems to be pretty low on the Packers everywhere. On defense, Rashan Gary is expected to have only seven sacks — he had nine last year, and six in 2022 even playing just nine games. Preston Smith would also regress to 6.8 (he had eight last year), and Lukas Van Ness would slightly improve from 4 to 4.8.

Mike Clay tends to base his projections on past production, which is fine. But at the same time, he projects Jordan Love to have only 146 passing yards more than Bryce Young. For a young team like the Packers, it's fine to project variance, and some pieces might even regress. But other ones will certainly take a step forward, and this is a big part of the Packers' plan in 2024.