Way Too Early 2024 NFL Over/Under Win Total Predictions: AFC East Edition

Once again, the Buffalo Bills are favorites to win the AFC East. While the Bills managed to capture the AFC East title last season, it was looking highly unlikely when Buffalo was 6-6 after 12 games. Yet, the Bills managed to win five straight games to overtake the Miami Dolphins.

The most notable event of the offseason for the Bills has to be trading star WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. As a result, many may question whether Buffalo can win 11 or more games again this season.

I believe this is attainable for the Bills. Part of the reason I feel this way is because I believe Diggs’ departure is overblown. During Buffalo’s five-game winning streak to end the 2023 regular season, Diggs did not have any touchdown receptions or 100 receiving yards in any of those games.

Josh Allen is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bills should find a way to win with the talent Allen brings to that offense.

Miami Dolphins UNDER 9.5 Wins

On the other end of the spectrum, the Dolphins had about as bad of a finish to the 2023 season as it gets. At one point, they led the AFC East by three games with five games remaining. Yet, they lost the AFC East title in the final week of the regular season to the Buffalo Bills.

After that, the Dolphins had a forgettable appearance in the wild card round, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 26-7. All signs point to that continuing in the 2024 season.

Despite the Dolphins starting the season with two home games in September, they arguably caught a rough break in how it happened. They face the Jacksonville Jaguars to open the season and then play the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. After that, they face the Seattle Seahawks on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to play as a road team.

I expect the Dolphins to take a step back next year and no longer have the top offense in the NFL despite their wide receiver talent. Because of this, I think the Dolphins will end up with fewer than 10 wins next season.

New York Jets UNDER 9.5 Wins

When it comes to the Jets, it feels like we are going through the same motions we did last offseason. Those motions include thinking veteran QB Aaron Rodgers is going to elevate this team to a Super Bowl contender.

Personally, I am not sold on this. Admittedly, the Jets managed to win seven games despite having a lot of instability at the quarterback position last season. However, there are still serious concerns with this team.

One of those concerns is the health of Aaron Rodgers. He is 40 years old and is coming back from a torn Achilles injury. Personally, I would not have been surprised if Rodgers retired after that injury.

I am still not sold he is going to be healthy for 17 games next season. And even if he is, it is fair to question what kind of production we will get from a quarterback that is his age facing the circumstances that he has.

If that was not enough, the Jets have the most primetime games of any team in the NFL. They also open the season on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. To me, it feels like too much pressure and too much hype to live up to. I would predict that they end up with fewer than 10 wins.

New England Patriots OVER 4.5 Wins

Last and maybe least, we have the New England Patriots. At one point, this team was a dynasty. Now, people like Red Stallions Girl are wondering what happened to this team. You can argue the Patriots hit rock bottom last season, having the third-worst record in the NFL.

However, I think they will start heading in the right direction next season. Patriots owner Robert Kraft addressed the need for things to change. As a result, New England promoted Jerod Mayo and he became their next head coach. Plus, the Patriots drafted QB Drake Maye after having forgettable quarterback play from Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe last season.

Last season, the Patriots won four games. If you think they will be remotely improved compared to last season, predicting them to win at least five games is the way to go.